Make a Prediction

Tomorrow I'm going to run the St. Joseph's Home 5k. The last time I ran this race may have been in 1999. Back then, it was in August, which was pretty brutal. And the course itself is bad enough without the heat. It's one mile straight downhill, one mile flat, one mile plus uphill. And it is quite the hill.

So, back in 1999, when I was, according to my running log, approximately the same weight I am right now if not a pound or two heavier, I ran it in 25:38. Which, at the time, was over a minute slower than I was running flat 5ks that summer. But...I was also averaging 40 miles a week in contrast to less than 25 a week right now. And I was doing 20 mile long runs every other week. And I was doing mile repeats at 5k race pace. (I guess I mistaken about my not ever having done speedwork regularly before. I forgot. The way I used to train, which I thought was pretty lackadaisical at the time, actually makes my current efforts look very wimpy). Oh, and I was running 4:00 marathons without too much trouble.

I also ran the first mile of this race in 6:54, which at the time was my one mile PR. (I hadn't run many mile races.) Not just my PR for the first mile of a 5k, but my PR for one mile in any race. The splits were 6:54, 8:13, 9:35 and 56 seconds for the last bit.

I plan to go out a little more conservatively this time, and hope that I can push it more (relatively) in the second mile. I also think that I am maybe a little better at the uphill stuff than I used to be.

I'm not saying that I'm going to be faster than I was in 1999. That cannot be. But I'm thinking that maybe it won't be too far off my other current 5ks.

Which are, what? I haven't run a 5k since the fall, and then I was running 24:30s, same as I was in 1999. So, I guess that means at least last fall I had 24:30 speed for a 5k. But based on the recent 10ks, I'm probably closer to 26 minutes for an average 5k right now.

And this is far from the average 5k. So, what? I am thinking somewhere between 27 and 30. I have decided to be very satisfied with a 27, but not overly surprised if it ends up being closer to 30.

Oh, and try not to destroy my knee, which has been bothering me the past few days. And hope the weird ankle pain I have been having since yesterday is really nothing.